Extract from Insights Article
According to findings from a new Bain study, sales of luxury goods in mainland China will grow overall by 25 to 30 percent in 2011, with more than 60 percent of purchases coming from new luxury customers. Strong sales in the first three quarters of this year in China are driving Bain’s luxury goods 2011 estimate, with a gradual softening seen for the fourth quarter, according to the study. Watches are the growth leader in the market, with a growth forecast of 40 percent for 2011, while shoes, cosmetics and fragrances will see growth rates near 20 percent. Growth rates in China continue to outperform globally; Bain finds that 2011 sales will be up by eight percent in the Americas, two percent in Japan, and seven percent in Europe.
While the majority of sales growth in 2011 is coming from new luxury shoppers, the share of growth from existing customers will improve to reach approximately 40%, according to the shopping intentions of the 2,000 Chinese luxury shoppers surveyed across Tier One to Tier Three cities in China including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou. The study finds that China’s domestic market growth is still driven by new store openings. Bain saw a continued expansion into Tier Two and Tier Three cities, although the pace of store openings in China has cooled down in 2011. For a select group of luxury brands, the new store openings declined from 150 in 2009 and 160 in 2010 to an estimated 90 store openings in 2011.
A detailed recap of the study’s key findings is freely available from the Bain & Co website (pre-registation required)