The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) have just released their Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO2010). The projections are based on results from the EIA’s National Energy Modeling System and focus on the factors that shape US energy markets in the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2010 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for the analysis of potential changes in energy policies, rules, or regulations. This year’s report also includes 38 sensitivity cases which explore important areas of market, technological, and policy uncertainty in the US energy economy. In addition to considering alternative scenarios for oil prices, economic growth, and the uptake of more energy-efficient technologies, the AEO2010 includes cases that examine the impact of changes in selected policies, such as the extension of existing policies that are currently scheduled to sunset as well as the sensitivity of natural gas shale production to variations in drilling activity and the size of the resource base.
Key results highlighted in AEO2010 include: moderate growth in energy consumption; increased use of renewables; declining reliance on imported liquid fuels; strong growth in shale gas production; and projected slow growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the absence of new policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. AEO2010 also includes in-depth discussions on topics of special interest that may affect the energy market outlook. They include: impacts of the continuing renewal and updating of Federal and State laws and regulations; end-use energy efficiency trends in the AEO2010 Reference case; the sensitivity of projections to alternative assumptions about US shale gas development; the implications of retiring nuclear plants after 60 years of operation; the relationship between natural gas and oil prices in US markets; and the basis for world oil price and production trends in AEO2010.
Click here for the full report
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