The autumn 2009 edition of London’s Economic Outlook (LEO) is GLA Economics’ 15th London forecast. The forecasts are issued every six months to assist those preparing planning projections for London in the medium term. The report contains an overview of recent economic conditions in London, the UK and the world economies with analysis of important events, trends and risks to short and medium term growth. It the ‘consensus forecast’ – a review of independent forecasts indicating the range of views about London’s economy and the possible upside and downside risk. It also contains the GLA Economics forecast for output, employment, household expenditure and household income in London
Selected findings from the report:
London’s economic output contracted at an annualised rate of -3.6% in quarter one of 2009 compared to -5.2% in the UK. Annual economic growth in London has been stronger than the UK as a whole since the third quarter of 2004
Annual employment growth in London remained negative in the second quarter of 2009 at -1.4% compared to -1.1% in the previous quarter. The total number of workforce jobs in London was just over 4.6 million in quarter two 2009
Public transport usage can provide a usage is a useful and timely indicator of economic activity in London. This year has seen a continued slow down in the annual growth in the moving average of both bus and underground usage.
Annual house price inflation slowed in the second half of 2007 and turned negative in 2008, although there have been recent signs of some improvement in the market. Still with tightened lending criteria, subdued lending, and the continued economic downturn, house prices are likely to remain restrained for some time yet. Annual house price inflation in London as measured by DCLG, the Halifax house price index and Nationwide was very negative in the second quarter of 2009 and was close to the picture seen in the rest of the UK.
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