The International Energy Outlook 2009 presents the latest outlook for international energy markets from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2009 projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the forecast. The time frame for historical data begins with 1980 and extends to 2006, and the projections extend to 2030. The projections are meant to provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze international energy markets. Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities, regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behaviour. Trends depicted in the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than representations of specific real-world outcomes
- World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44% between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection.
- The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. However, with economic recovery anticipated to begin within the next 12 to 24 months, most nations are expected to see energy consumption growth at rates anticipated prior to the recession.
- World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. Total liquid fuels and other petroleum consumption in 2030 is projected to be 22 million barrels per day higher than the 2006 level of 85 million barrels per day.
The full report is available for download from the EIA website
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