BizResearch

The Western European Gas Market Outlook 2009

This latest market research report from Business Insights provides profiles for 19 countries detailing the supply, demand regulation and infrastructure for the gas market.
 
Selected highlights from the report:

France: The dominance of nuclear power in France means that gas has traditionally played a comparatively minor role in the energy mix. However, this role is growing at a slow but steady rate, with gas now accounting for 15% of primary energy consumption. France’s already low levels of gas production continue to decline, meaning that imports and rising storage capacity will become increasingly important in the coming years.

Spain: Strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth from the late 1990s onwards, combined with rapid industrialization, has contributed to above-average growth in both gas and power demand in Spain. This has boosted the role of gas in the primary energy mix from 7% to 21% over a decade. Despite economic growth slowing down in recent years, gas demand is likely to continue to grow. Gas for use in power generation has driven much of the growth in Spain's demand, and will continue to do so in the coming years

Sweden:  Gas plays only a very small role in the Swedish energy mix owing to the strong dominance of both hydro and nuclear power. Gas has only been consumed in the country since 1985. All gas consumed in Sweden is currently imported from Denmark, although scope does exist to diversify supply sources when required. Sweden’s major gas importer Nova Naturgas was renamed Swedegas in early 2007.

UK: Since natural gas production from the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) first began flowing in the mid-1960s, natural gas has played an increasingly vital role in the UK energy mix. Demand growth was strong in the decades following the discovery of gas in the UK, but the maturing of the market has brought with it a considerable slowdown in the earlier growth rates. Traditionally, indigenous supplies have allowed the UK to be a net exporter of gas. However, the UKCS has now reached production peak, resulting in the UK becoming a net gas importer of gas at the end of 2004. This decline in indigenous production has resulted in a growing need for gas imports from other parts of the EU, Russia and Norway, as well as other more distant supply sources in the form of liquefied natural gas

This report is available to current London Business School Staff, students and faculty from the Business Insights database on the A-z list of library databases via Portal

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2009 World Wealth Report

Capgemini and Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management have released the 13th World Wealth Report. The annual report looks at the macroeconomic factors that drive wealth creation in order to gain a better understanding of the key trends that affect High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) around the globe. It covers 71 countries, accounting for more than 98% of global gross national income and 99% of world stock market capitalization The model used for these calculations is built in two stages: first, the estimation of total wealth by country, and second, the distribution of this wealth across the adult population in that country. Total wealth levels by country are estimated using national account statistics from recognized sources, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to identify the total amount of national savings in each year.

Highlights from this years report:

At the end of last year the world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) was down 14.9% from the year before, while their wealth had dropped 19.5%. The most significant declines in the HNWI population in 2008 occurred in the three largest regions: North America (-19.0%), Europe (-14.4%) and Asia-Pacific (-14.2%). But behind the aggregate numbers lie some interesting developments in the HNWI populations of those regions. The number of HNWIs in the US fell 18.5% in 2008, but the US is still the single largest home to HNWIs, with its 2.5 million, which is 28.7% of the global HNWI population.

The report also finds that the current financial crisis and economic uncertainty has had a large impact on HNWIs and their lifestyle spending, with luxury goods makers, auction houses, and high-end service providers reporting significantly reduced demand worldwide.  Fine art has remained the primary passion investment for ultra-HNWIs in 2008 (27% of their total passion investments). Lifestyle spending rose on Health/Wellness, where 54% of HNWIs globally said they increased spending, but dropped on luxury travel and luxury consumables.

It seems that the recession has taken its toll on charitable giving as the year progressed, with little change in the first half the year but severely impacted in Q4 as HNWIs gave less and focused on fewer causes.  The outlook for Philanthropy in 2009 is poor with 60% of North American HNWIs saying they would be giving less due to the economic downturn. Japan was the only country that forecasted a growth in charitable donations.

The full report is available for downloading from the Capgemini website (pre-registration is required)

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Edgeless University: why higher education must embrace technology

British Universities have world-class reputations and they are vital to our social and economic future. But they are in a tight spot. The huge public investment that sustained much of the sector is in jeopardy and the current way of working is not sustainable. Some are predicting the end of the university as we have known it.

The Edgeless University argues that this can be a moment of rebirth for universities. Technology is changing universities as they become just one source among many for ideas, knowledge and innovation. But online tools and open access also offer the means for their survival. Their expertise and value is needed more than ever to validate and support learning and research.

Through their institutional capital, universities can use technology to offer more flexible provision and open more equal routes to higher education and learning. We need the learning and research that higher education provides. But this will take strategic leadership from within, new connections with a growing world of informal learning and a commitment to openness and collaboration. By exploiting this role, universities can harness technology as a solution and an indispensable tool for shaping their vital role in the future.

Click here to read the report

Mine: When the going gets tough...

PricewaterhouseCoopers have released their sixth annual review of global trends in the mining industry. The review provides a comprehensive analysis of the financial performance and position of the global mining industry as represented by the largest 40 mining companies by market capitalisation.

Despite a strong financial start in 2008 things quickly took a turn for the worst as the global economic crisis took hold in the last quarter and commodity prices went into freefall. So where does this leave the industry?   According to PwC the full effect of the downturn is not evident in the 2008 financial information, however first quarter releases of a number of companies report significantly reduced profits and in some cases operating losses. There is no doubt that the industry is facing tougher times, and steering a path through this downturn will require tough decisions from the leaders of the Top 40. 

Some of the key findings of the analysis include

• Despite a record year in terms of revenue and EBITDA, market capitalisation declined 62%, primarily due to the fall in commodity prices and the impact of the global economic crisis on shareholder confidence;
• Operating costs continued to rise at a greater speed than revenue, further eroding margins;
  In the current climate there is no more valuable an asset than cash, and for cash rich companies opportunities exist as asset values fall. The timing of action could be a lead indicator as to the industry's assessment of value and when asset prices have declined sufficiently to best utilise their cash resources; and
• The boom encouraged the industry to invest heavily in capital projects and grow the top line. In these more cautious times, the ability to turn the cost tap on and off quickly may be the difference between success and failure.

The full report can be downloaded from the PwC website

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European Innovation Scoreboard 2008

The European Innovation Scoreboard (EIS) has been published annually since 2001 in order to track and benchmark the relative innovation performance of EU Member States. For the 8th edition the methodology has been completely revised to present a stronger focus on services, non-technological aspects, and outputs of innovation. The analysis of trends over time is now based on changes in the absolute values of the indicators over a five year period, rather than the previous approach of measuring trends relative to the EU average.  Findings from this year’s report:

Sweden, Finland, Germany, Denmark and the UK are the Innovation leaders, with innovation performance well above that of the EU average and all other countries. Of these countries, Germany is improving its performance fastest while Denmark is stagnating.

Austria, Ireland, Luxembourg, Belgium, France and the Netherlands are the Innovation followers, with innovation performance below those of the innovation leaders but above that of the EU average. Ireland’s performance has been increasing fastest within this group, followed by Austria.

Cyprus, Estonia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy are the Moderate innovators, with innovation performance below the EU average. The trend in Cyprus’ innovation performance is well above the average for this group, followed by Portugal, while Spain and Italy are not improving their relative position.

Malta, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Latvia and Bulgaria are the Catching-up countries with innovation performance well below the EU average. All of these countries have been catching up, with the exception of Lithuania. Bulgaria and Romania have been improving their performance the fastest.

Click here to read the report in full

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Digital Britain: Final Report

Building a digital knowledge economy in the 21st Century is fundamental to the UK’s future prosperity according to the final report from the Department for Culture, Media and Sport and Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. The UK is already digitally enabled and to a significant degree a digitally dependent economy and society.The communications sector underpins everything we do as an economy and society. Electronic systems and new technology have transformed core elements of UK industry, the media and public services. In the City, digital technologies are vital to the billions of transactions carried out each day by the stock exchange and financial institutions. In the high street, stock ordering, inventory control and the cash tills are all completely dependent on electronic communications. As consumers, some 90% of our high street purchases are transacted by plastic which depends on wired and wireless communications to work. That is in addition to the £50bn of consumer purchases and sales through e-commerce that takes place wholly online.  

The Digital Britain Report underscores the importance of understanding, appreciating and planning for a fully digital Britain by providing an analysis of the following areas:

• The levels of digital participation, skills and access needed for the digital future, with a plan for increasing participation, and more coherent public structures to deal with it.

• An analysis of our communications infrastructure capabilities, an identification of the gaps and recommendations on how to fill them.

• A statement of ambition for the future growth of our creative industries, proposals for a legal and regulatory framework for intellectual property in a digital world, proposals on skills and a recognition of the need for investment support and innovation.

• A restatement of the need for specific market intervention in the UK content market, and what that will demand of the BBC and its role in Digital Britain. What that means for the future of the C4 Corporation. An analysis of the importance of other forms of independent and suitably funded news, and what clarification and changes are needed to the existing framework.

• An analysis of the skills, research and training markets, and what supply side issues need addressing for a fully functioning digital economy.

• A framework for digital security and digital safety at international and national levels and recognition that in a world of high speed connectivity we need a digital framework not an analogue one.

• A review of what all of this means for the Government and how digital governance in the information age demands new structures, new safeguards, and new data management, access and transparency rules.

Click here to read the report in full

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Private Equity Compensation Report 2008 - Executive Summary

The 2008 Private Equity Jobs Digest Compensation Survey was conducted in Fall 2008 and received private equity compensation data directly from hundreds of private equity and venture capital partners and employees from firms, both large and small. Some of the participating firms include: Credit Suisse, Delta Partners Group, Intel Capital, Kaiser Permanente Ventures, Lehman Brothers, Soft Bank Capital and many others.

With the shift this year in the financial markets, the results indicate that professionals in private equity and VC jobs see further trouble on the financial horizon. Similar to what we saw in the hedge fund industry, this year’s private equity and VC report reveals that 47 percent are happy with their current level of compensation – an 80 percent increase in pay satisfaction from last year! And why not? The average total compensation, industry-wide, was $255,000 USD – up 14 percent from last year’s figure of $224,000.

Read the summary

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General Insurance Performance Benchmarking Survey

General Insurance Performance Benchmarking Survey 2008

KPMG

The survey focuses on benchmarking the performance and disclosure of broadly comparable general insurers based on full year 2008 results.

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Innovations in Confectionery

This latest market research report from Business Insights analyses market data on the value growth of the confectionery market. Last year the European confectionery market was worth $66.8bn, almost twice the size of the US market, which has a value of $32.9 bn. The UK is the largest single market in Europe for confectionery with a market value of $12.3bn in 2008. With an overall growth rate of 7.5%, the UK market is projected to reach $13.2bn by 2012.

The confectionery market is segmented as follows;

Chocolate: Includes moulded bars, boxed chocolate, chocolate countlines, novelties and chocolate straightlines;

Sugar confectionery: includes caramels and toffees, hard boiled sweets, gums and jellies, medicated confectionery, other sugar confectionery, regular mints and power mints;

Gum: Sugar free gum, regular chewing gum, functional chewing gum and bubblegum;

Cereal bars: Sports and energy bars; granola/muesli bars and other bars.

Some of the key trends identified by the report:

• Ingredients that promote satiety are being used in confectionery and are forming part of a new generation of weight management products aimed to aid weight loss.

• Oral health has become a significant driver of growth in the confectionery market and this is set to continue as products with added benefits continue to be developed. Innovations such as functional gums and mints that freshen breath, whiten teeth and clean the tongue will continue spearhead this growth.

• Chocolate with a ‘high cocoa content’ is increasingly positioned as being healthy, premium and indulgent, as high cocoa content is often used to demark the quality of chocolate products.

• Heritage and tradition are being used as marketing tools to provide consumers with an alternative to mass food processing techniques which are unpopular with a number of consumers.

This report is available to current London Business School staff, students and faculty from the Business Insights database on the A-Z list of library databases via Portal.

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Africa Competitiveness Report 2009

African businesses can become far more competitive, but African governments and their international partners will need to improve access to finance, resist pressure to erect trade barriers, upgrade infrastructure, improve healthcare and educational systems, and strengthen institutions. These are the main conclusions of the 2009 African Competitiveness Report released today by the World Economic Forum, the African Development Bank and the World Bank. Limited access to financial services remains a major obstacle for African enterprises, but underdeveloped infrastructure, limited healthcare and educational services, and poor institutional frameworks also make African countries less competitive in the global marketplace. The report also points to a number of success stories in the region that highlight steps countries can take to improve the business environment.  The report highlights two short-term and three longer term policy themes for improving the competitiveness of African economies.

The two short-term themes are:

Increasing access to finance through market-enabling policies: Africa’s financial systems have been deepening and broadening in recent years, but the current global crisis threatens to reverse this trend and undermine recent progress. It is now even more important to upgrade the necessary frameworks for sound, efficient and inclusive financial systems

Keeping markets open to trade: Protectionist forces are emerging in response to the global economic crisis, yet, such measures will further reduce demand and restrict growth. Africa’s leaders must resist domestic political pressures to erect trade barriers that would make the region’s recovery even more difficult

The three longer term themes are:

• Infrastructure remains one of the top constraints to businesses in Africa.
• Inefficient basic education and healthcare systems constrain Africa’s productive potential.
• More examples of good governance and strong and visionary leadership are needed.

The full report can be downloaded for free from the World Economic Forum website

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Equity Markets 2009

The global economic crisis led to one of the biggest falls on record of equity markets last year and a significant drop in activity in many other financial markets. As this latest report from IFSL shows, the UK’s substantial domestic market in equities is complemented by London’s role as a major centre for trading in foreign equity. London accounted for 28% of international IPOs by number in 2008.  The 681 foreign companies listed on the London Stock Exchange at the end of 2008 was more than on any other exchange

Highlights from the report:

Global equity market: The value of the global equity market fell 47% in 2008 to $32.6 trillion with IPOs falling by more than a half and global M&A volumes declining 30%. Market turnover on exchanges in domestic and foreign companies increased 1% during 2008 to $114 trillion. The fall in global equity market capitalisation in 2008 follows five consecutive years of growth. Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, within a period of around two months equities lost nearly 40% of their value. Although the economic crisis began in the US, in dollar terms equity market capitalisation dropped less there (41%) than in Europe (49%). Emerging markets performance was weaker than developed markets in 2008 due to high investor risk aversion.

UK equity market: The market value of domestic companies trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) mirrored declines on the global markets in 2008 and fell to £1,288bn from £1,933bn. Money raised from IPOs fell to £7.2bn in 2008, one third the level in the previous year. Further issues however, reached record levels of £63.7bn as companies shifted to raising capital from equity rather then bank borrowing. Strong secondary issuance on the LSE has continued into 2009 with a further £36.9bn in money raised in the first 4 months of the year.

Click here to read the report in full.

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Global Internet Access

This latest market research report from Datamonitor examines the global Internet access market, providing information on market size, share and segmentation plus detailed analysis. It also provides information on the leading companies in this industry.  The Internet access market consists of the total revenues generated by Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from the provision of both narrowband and broadband Internet connections to Internet subscribers. Revenues generated by ISPs from other Internet related services are not included in this report. Market volumes represent the number of subscribers and exclude corporate data. For the purpose of this report the global figure is deemed to comprise of the Americas, Asia-Pacific and Europe.

Highlights from the report

• The global internet access market has shown strong growth over the previous five years, but will begin to slow in its growth approaching 2013 as internet access penetration reaches saturation within many countries.

• The global internet access market generated total revenues of $184.8 billion in 2008, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.9% for the period 2004-2008. In comparison, the Americas and European markets grew with CAGRs of 10.7% and 12.8%, respectively, over the same period, to reach respective values of $64 billion and $51.4 billion in 2008.

• The number of internet subscribers increased with a CAGR of 11.4% between 2004- 2008, to reach a total of 453.3 million in 2008. The number of subscribers is expected to rise to 678.3 million by the end of 2013, representing a CAGR of 8.4% for the 2008-2013 period.

• The performance of the market is forecast to decelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 10.1% for the five-year period 2008-2013, which is expected to drive the market to a value of $298.8 billion by the end of 2013. Comparatively, the Americas and European markets will grow with CAGRs of 7.9% and 6.4%, respectively, over the same period, to reach respective values of $93.8 billion and $70 billion in 2013.

This report is available to current London Business School staff, students and faculty from the Marketline database which can be found on the A-Z list of library databases via portal

Individual country reports covering this industry sector are also available

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Need a business plan for a microbrewery or online consultancy?

Business Reference is a US site that provides a range of business plans: from detective agency and dog kennel to PR firm and video production company.

The plans are composed of actual business plans written by entrepreneurs in North America who are seeking financing for their business.

The site also includes:

Encyclopedia of Small Business
Encyclopedia of Business
Business Biographies
Business Plans
Encyclopedia of American Industries
Encyclopedia of Management
Company Histories
Company Histories Part 2
Leading American Businesses

End.

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Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2009 Report

This report presents the financial perspective on the current state of play in the development of sustainable energy. The analysis consists of actual data on the different types of capital flows and their movement over time, combined with analysis of regional and sectoral trends. The information is intended to serve as a strategic tool to be used by decision makers in the policy and finance communities globally as they weigh-up commitments to the sustainable energy sector.  The report was commissioned by UNEP’s Division of Technology, Industry and Economic (DTIE) under its Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative and was produced in collaboration with New Energy Finance.

Report highlights

Last year was another milestone for investment in sustainable energy, especially given the overall investment climate. Last year a total of $155 billion was invested in companies and projects globally, a modest increase of 5% over 2007. Following several years of over 50% growth, this marks a dramatic slowdown as a result of the global economic downturn.  Some improvement has been seen during the second quarter of 2009, but the sector has a long way to go this year to reach previous levels of investment.

The drivers that have propelled investment in the sustainable energy sector for the past five years, however, are still at work – climate change, energy insecurity, fossil fuel depletion and new technologies. As well, political support remains strong, with an estimated $180 billion of fiscal stimulus committed to sustainable energy. While the $155 billion of investment in 2008 and $180 billion of government support in 2009 are impressive, investment needs to reach half a trillion dollars per annum by 2020 to help ensure a peak in greenhouse gas emissions.

Investment in new energy generation projects (wind, solar, biofuels etc.) grew by 13% during 2008, to $117 billion, and new private investment in companies developing and scaling-up new technologies, including energy efficiency, increased by 37% from 2007 to $13.5 billion.  Capital raised via the public stock markets for equipment manufacturing and project pipelines fell 51% to $11.4 billion, as clean energy share prices lost 61% of their value during 2008. Total transaction value in the sustainable energy sector during 2008 – including corporate acquisitions, asset re-financings and private equity buy-outs – was $223 billion, an increase of 7% over 2007.

The full report and accompanying resources, including a data set for the report’s graphs and a PowerPoint presentation, can be downloaded from the UNEP SEFI website  (pre-registration required)

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The International Energy Outlook 2009

The International Energy Outlook 2009 presents the latest outlook for international energy markets from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).  The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2009 projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the forecast. The time frame for historical data begins with 1980 and extends to 2006, and the projections extend to 2030. The projections are meant to provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze international energy markets. Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities, regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behaviour. Trends depicted in the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than representations of specific real-world outcomes

Report highlights

• World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44% between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection.

• The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. However, with economic recovery anticipated to begin within the next 12 to 24 months, most nations are expected to see energy consumption growth at rates anticipated prior to the recession.

• World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. Total liquid fuels and other petroleum consumption in 2030 is projected to be 22 million barrels per day higher than the 2006 level of 85 million barrels per day.

• In addition, unconventional resources (including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) from both non-OPEC and OPEC sources are expected to become increasingly competitive in the reference case. World production of unconventional resources, which totalled 3.1 million barrels per day in 2006, increases to 13.4 million barrels per day in 2030 in the reference case, accounting for 13 percent of total world liquids supply in 2030.

The full report is available for download from the EIA website

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Forbes Magazine - 2009 Celebrity 100

In a year filled with humbling bank failures and violent stock market swings, the earning power of the 2009 Celebrity 100 remained remarkably resilient. The cumulative earnings of the 2009 list totalled $4.1 billion, up slightly from last year's $4 billion haul. The annual Celebrity 100 list from Forbes magazine is a measure of entertainment-related earnings and media visibility (exposure in print, television, radio and online). Earnings estimates are based on income from films, television shows, endorsements, books and other entertainment ventures. Sources include Billboard, Pollstar, Adams Media Research, Nielsen SoundScan, Nielsen BookScan, Nielsen Media Research and SNL Kagan. Fame is calculated using Web hits on Google Blog Search, TV/radio mentions on LexisNexis, overall press mentions on Factiva and the number of times a celebrity's image appeared on the cover of 25 consumer magazines.

This year’s list sees actress Angelina Jolie take the number one spot. Thanks to the release of several blockbuster movies and an endless sea of media attention. Oprah Winfrey drops to No. 2 on the list but pocketed $275 million in the last year, making her the list's top earner.  Early next year, the self-made billionaire will roll out the lifestyle-themed Oprah Winfrey Network in partnership with Discovery Communications. Rounding out the top five on the list are: No. 3 pop icon Madonna ($110 million) whose Hard Candy album tour became the top-grossing international tour of 2008, bringing in $280 million on 58 concerts in 17 countries: No. 4 singer Beyoncé Knowles ($87 million); and No. 5 golfer Tiger Woods ($110 million).

The complete list can be sorted by rank, name, pay, news rank, web rank, and TV rank

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Global Financial Stability Report April 2009

The April issue of the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) examines the key risks facing the global financial system. Normally the report seeks to play a role in preventing crises by highlighting policies that may mitigate systemic risks, thereby contributing to global financial stability and the sustained economic growth of the IMF’s member countries. However in this current crisis, the report traces the sources and channels of financial distress, providing policy advice on mitigating its effects on economic activity, stemming contagion, and mending the global financial system. The issues discussed are in part, drawn from discussions with banks, clearing organizations, securities firms, asset management companies, hedge funds, standard setters, financial consultants and academic researchers

The global financial system remains under severe stress, spreading to include households, corporations and the banking sectors in advanced and emerging market countries. Shrinking economic activity has put further pressure on banks’ balance sheets as asset values continue to degrade, threatening their capital adequacy and further discouraging fresh lending. Thus, credit growth is slowing, and even turning negative, adding even more downward pressure on economic activity. Substantial private sector adjustment and public support packages are already being implemented and are contributing to some early signs of stabilization. Even so, further decisive and effective policy actions and international coordination are needed to sustain this improvement, to restore public confidence in financial institutions, and to normalize conditions in markets. The key challenge is to break the downward spiral between the financial system and the global economy. Promising efforts are already under way for the redesign of the global financial system that should provide a more stable and resilient platform for sustained economic growth.

The full report can be downloaded from the IMF website

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The Outlook for Retail Banking in Europe and the US

This report from Business Insights analyses the retail banking market following the impact of the financial crisis of 2008. It discusses how the banking market has been reshaped following the disruption with a huge shift in positioning for the leading global banks during 2009. It will also examines the key points leading to the financial crisis before evaluating individual banks and discussing the impact of legislation and regulation on the industry. The report will conclude with an analysis of the potential for the future of retail banking in Europe and the US.

Highlights from the report:

• HSBC dominates retail banking in 2009, while Citigroup has fallen down the ranks and RBS has disappeared from the top ten.

• Bank of America saw the highest revenue from retail sales in 2008, but when compared by net income European banks such as Santander and BBVA dominate

• JP Morgan Chase is one of the strongest banks in the US and has consolidated its position with a strong balance sheet and shrewd acquisitions policy.

• Citigroup has been one of the worst-hit banks of the crisis and despite government aid of $50bn is widely expected to require further assistance with no guarantee of a recovery.

• Banco Santander has benefited from Spain’s strict banking regulations, and with a strong retail base and high capital reserves is in a strong position for the future.

The outlook for 2009-2010

• The global economy is predicted to decline throughout 2009, but regain moderate traction by 2010.

• Governments will continue providing fiscal stimulus throughout 2009-2010 in an attempt to kick-start the economy, although the effects may not be seen until the latter end of 2010.

• The retail banking industry faces key risks including a lack of funding, shortages of capital and liquidity, and global price volatility.

• Consolidation within the industry will continue, but smaller banks and start-ups have greater opportunity than ever before and should take advantage of the open playing field.

• Regulation will have the biggest impact on the banking industry in 2009-2010.

This report is available to current London Business School staff, students & faculty from Business Insights located on the A-Z list of library databases via Portal.

Photo by Erica Marshall (Creative commons: Flickr)