BizResearch

Transport Trends 2008

This annual publication from the Department for Transport presents an overview and analysis of trends in transport and travel in Great Britain.
 
Some of the main findings from the report:

Road traffic in Great Britain has grown by 87% since 1980. Many factors have affected traffic levels, including fuel prices, economic growth and an increase in car ownership and number of drivers. Nearly a third of households now have access to two or more cars, more than the proportion of households without access to a car. Men are still more likely to have a driving licence but the proportion of women holding a licence has been increasing at a faster rate.

The number of bus journeys has declined from the mid 1980s to the mid 1990s, but has shown some increase over the past 7 years, mainly because of increased bus use in London, and the introduction of free concessionary travel for elderly and disabled passengers. Rail travel has increased by over 60% since 1980 despite the effects of the Hatfield crash in October 2000. Investment in national rail infrastructure has increased significantly since privatisation. The reliability of train services has been improving gradually since 2000, as has passenger satisfaction with journeys undertaken.

The number of UK residents travelling abroad for the purpose of a holiday increased considerably over the period and although the number of holiday visits to the UK by overseas residents also increased, the proportion for this purpose declined as a proportion of all visits. The growth in air travel accounts for the majority of the increases in visits to and from the UK; the number of passengers using UK airports has more than quadrupled between 1980 and 2007. Spain is the most popular country visited by UK residents, followed by the USA.

Walking and cycling for travel purposes have both declined significantly over the past decade. The accompanying growth in motorised transport has resulted in a 54% increase in carbon dioxide emissions from domestic transport sources since 1980, which now account for 24% of UK carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions of local air pollutants have declined with the advent of catalytic converters and cleaner fuels. Despite an improvement in vehicle fuel efficiency, the fuel consumed by transport has increased due to growth in road traffic together with a substantial rise in international aviation.

Click here to download the full report

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World Retail Banking Report 2009

Capgemini in partnership with the European Financial Management & Marketing Association (Efma) and UniCredit present the sixth annual edition of the World Retail Banking Report. The report provides a global overview of the industry’s dynamics, with a pricing section focusing on the world’s retail banking pricing structure, plus a spotlight section analysing a current crucial retail banking issue. The geographic scope of this year’s edition covers 26 countries, including one new country, Russia. The number of retail banks it covers rose from 194 to 203. The report examines the worldwide pricing of day-to-day banking products and services, presenting the findings in a yearly pricing index. (Click here for a dashboard of each country’s national banking industry.)

This year’s spotlight section focuses on mortgage profitability. The report looks at the impact of the current financial and real estate crises on retail banks’ business models, and how retail banks can address this new market situation. The analysis is based on three different investigations: a market survey, qualitative bank interviews, and an in-depth profitability analysis. The results highlight several major future challenges retail banks will face in the mortgage sector, and outline some key solutions banks will need to succeed.

This year’s study identifies three major trends:

• Prices continued to decline: A 2% drop from last year, and a 1.2% annual decline since 2005.

• Policies designed to encourage Internet usage were reinforced: An Internet active user paid €9.5 less (16% lower) than a standard active user, and about €31 less (34% lower) than a branch active user.

• Price convergence in Europe Eurozone and North America continued to increase: Price discrepancies are at 31.7% (down from 32% last year) for Europe Eurozone and 27.4% for North America (down from 33.8%).

The full report can be downloaded from the Capgemini website (free pre-registration required)

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Social Network Statistics for 2009

  Collection of Social Network Stats  2009    Jeremiah Owyang, Forrester Research

"Numbers don’t tell us much without insight and interpretation, in fact, you’re going to see conflicting numbers of usage from many of the agencies and social networks themselves. The key is to look at trend movements, don’t focus on the specific numbers but the changes to them over time. I put more weight on active unique users in the last 30 days vs overall registered, in fact, the actual active conversion rate will often range from 10-40% of actual users sticking around and using the social network, so don’t be fooled by puffed numbers. No single metric is a good indicator, you have to evaluate the usage from multiple dimensions, so you also have to factor in what are users doing, time on site, interaction, and of course, did they end up buying, recommending products, or improving their lives. "

Owyang, an analyst for Forrester, says he will be updating this information throughout the year.

Read it at the web-strategist blog.

The Forrester Service is available to current students, staff and faculty at the London Business School. Pre-registration is required. Find the Forester and the Registration link in the A-Z list of databases in Portal.

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Second European Quality of Life Survey Overview

The European Quality of Life Survey carried out by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound) represents a unique attempt to explore quality of life throughout Europe. With information gathered from 35,000 interviews conducted in 31 countries, it is a major source of information for anyone interested in the social and economic challenges facing the EU in the wake of the two recent rounds of enlargement.

Quality of life in terms of this survey is defined as the scope that individuals have to achieve their own goals. The survey measures resources and living conditions through objective and descriptive indicators, but also incorporates subjective information: an important part of the analysis focuses on the relationship between reported views and attitudes on one side, and resources and living conditions on the other. In concrete terms, the survey’s core focus is on the domains of employment, economic resources, family life, community life, health, and housing and local environment. This report presents basic analyses of quality of life in these main domains, looking particularly at similarities and differences associated with country, gender, age and income.

This year’s survey finds that notable differences in terms of life satisfaction and attitudes towards the future underlined by the significant inequalities in living conditions and in daily life experiences for Europeans. In particular, well-being in the post-communist countries varies greatly between social and demographic groups. There are also marked disadvantages associated with low income, and some associations with demographics: for instance, older people in the 12 New Member States (NMS12) are more likely to report dissatisfaction with their situation. Standards of living and reported well-being of Europeans are closely related to the economy of the country in which they live. For four out of five Europeans, health is key to quality of life. Access to and quality of healthcare services are important factors for social protection; however, a substantial number of EU citizens report difficulty in accessing these services. The EQLS also assesses the quality of public services, environment and society – for example, measuring trust in other people and institutions.

The full report can be downloaded from the Eurofound website

Environmental, Economic and Policy Aspects of Biofuels

 
Foundations and Trends® in Microeconomics
Volume 4 Issue 5

Foundations and Trends provides state of the art review articles in business and economics by opinion/research leaders in accounting, econometrics, entrepreneurship, finance, marketing and microeconomics.

Students, staff and faculty of the London Business School can access the reviews via the list of databases in the Library Services section of Portal. 

Environmental, Economic and Policy Aspects of Biofuels

"This review provides a timely summary of the current understanding of the various impacts and contributes positively to the policy debate.

We have several key conclusions: (1) Biofuels are diverse and evolving; (2) Greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits vary significantly across various types of biofuels and are dependent on market conditions and policy situation; (3) Increase in income in the developing world would increase the demand for both food and fuel; (4) A diverse set of policies, which has been introduced or proposed, impacts biofuels directly; and (5) Much of the impact assessments of biofuels thus far are ex-ante estimates based on either optimization or equilibrium models.

The short-term economic impacts of biofuels will depend on a variety of factors such as the harvest in any given year, the oil price, economic growth, strength of the dollar, and level of inventory. The long-term impacts will depend on factors such as investment in technological change, population and economic growth, climate change, and long-term policies toward energy, agriculture, and the environment. The biofuel policy debate is likely to be an ongoing one in the near future.

Source:

Deepak Rajagopal and David Zilberman (2008) "Environmental, Economic and Policy Aspects of Biofuels",
Foundations and Trends® in Microeconomics: Vol. 4: No 5, pp 353-468.
http:/dx.doi.org/10.1561/0700000029

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Energy, Transport and Environment Indicators

This latest pocketbook from Eurostat presents a broad set of data collected by Eurostat and the European Environment Agency. It gives an overview of Energy, transport and environment Indicators for the 27 EU Member States, the EFTA and candidate countries, with a particular focus on sustainable development.  The main data source for indicators is the harmonised EU Energy Statistics whilst the bulk of data on emissions has been provided by the European Environment Agency.

Energy indicators include supply, final consumption, renewable sources, and the structure of the industry; energy dependency, energy efficiency, and energy prices. Transport indicators cover infrastructure, equipment, transport of passengers and freight and road safety. The Environment chapter includes indicators on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, waste, water use, biodiversity, toxic chemicals and pesticides, environmental protection expenditure and environmental accounts.

The pocketbook can be downloaded from the Eurostat website

Western European Online Retail and Travel Forecast 2008 To 2014

The latest Consumer Technographics data from Forrester shows that online retail and travel sales in 2008 reached €116 billion, an 18% increase over the previous year. This continued growth is due to a mix of factors such as well-established mail-order retailing, high population density, a wide variety of payment options, and above-average confidence in online security. The UK maintains its lead as the largest online retail market in Europe, with more than half of its adult population buying online regularly.
 
Highlights from the report:
 
In 2008, 37% of European adults regularly shopped online (around 136 million online shoppers). This number has increased steadily since 2000
 
Online shopping has evolved over the past five years, moving from early adopters to the mainstream, with women and middle-income consumers now more represented. The typical European online shopper remains slightly better educated, with a higher income and more likely to work full-time.
 
Books, leisure travel and clothing are the top three categories purchased online in the majority of Western Europe. Packaged music (primarily CDs) and event tickets are also favoured by Spanish, Dutch, and Swedish consumers, whereas the No. 1 online category in France is clothing.
 
UK online shoppers spent, on average, £1,312 (€1,378) per year in 2008. Swiss and Austrian online shoppers spend €959 and €887, respectively, per person per year. Online shoppers in Germany spend €825 a year on average, while those in Italy spend online €766 per year, with France (€754), Portugal (€663), and Greece (€699) spending the least online.

The full report is available to current London Business School students and faculty from the Forrester database on the A-Z list of library databases via Portal (pre-registration is required – see registration form also on A-Z list)

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Knowledge Workers and Knowledge Work

The aim of this report from the Work Foundation is to present a portrait of the work and the workforce in the knowledge economy.  There are many different definitions of the term ‘knowledge economy’,  in this report it is defined as a ‘transformed economy where investment in ‘knowledge based’ assets such as R&D, design, software, and human and organisational capital has become the dominant form of investment compared with investment in physical assets – machines, equipment, buildings and vehicles. Thus, the term ‘knowledge economy’ captures the subsequently changed industrial structure, ways of working, and the basis on which organisations compete and excel’.

The survey looked at the work-lives of 2011 workers in order to gage the level of 'cognitive complexity' of different jobs and so get a view of the scale of knowledge work.  Respondents were asked what they actually do at work and how often they perform particular tasks. This information was then used to assess the knowledge content of their jobs. The key test was the cognitive complexity required for each task – the use of high level ‘tacit’ knowledge that resides in people’s minds rather than being written down (or codified) in manuals, guides, lists and procedures. The participants were then grouped into seven distinct clusters of jobs ranging from ‘expert thinkers, innovators and leaders’ (the most knowledge intensive groups) to ‘assistants and clerks’ (the least knowledge intensive). The two highest knowledge groups are described as the ‘core’ knowledge worker.

Main findings

The UK has a 30-30-40 shaped workforce: about a third of jobs have a high knowledge content, a third have some and about 40% have less knowledge content. In addition, the report argues employers are poorly equipped to weather the recession because they use workers’ skills and talents poorly, tie them up in rules and procedures, and give them little say over how they do their work.

The most knowledge intensive jobs were almost equally likely to be held by men and women, but those jobs with some knowledge content – such as care and welfare workers, information handlers, and sellers and servers – were overwhelmingly female. Women have benefited from the growth of knowledge work, but this has not helped to overcome the gender pay gap.

Click here to read the full report

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Enquiry of the week - Hybrid cars

 Hybrid cars - market  and industry data

Asked about the best resources for researching the hybrid car market provides an opportunity to share information on some key research databases . The resources are avaiable to current students (Staff and Faculty) at the London Business School.

Frost & Sullivan - A great database when it covers the area you are interested in and for this topic it does! Use the Advance Search option - limit to the automarket area and search for hybrid.

Global Insight – I usually come to this database for country research but our subscription includes several specialised areas and one is auto! Start with hybrid and use their filters to refine you search  ie to the auto industry and market trends and data.

Business Monitor International – This is another country database but is also has special sections on auto. Us the advance search option – top right (small print) and search for hybrid within the auto area.

360 Search - To search the full text of newspapers, trade and profession press, and academic journals you would need to try Factiva and Business Source Complete. 360 Search is a meta search engine that covers these databases and several more, simultaneously through one simplified interface.

Investext - Analysts Reports - by city analysts and others - always worth a look. Change the date (or it defaults to the last 90 days) look up the industry - here is it automobile and search for hybrid free text. If you only wantt industry reports not individual company reports alter the Report Type accordingly.

All these products are availabe to current students (Staff and Faculty) at the London Business School through the Portal.

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The Evolution of Organic Food and Drinks

Increasing public concern about the food production has resulted in a steady growth in demand for organic food and drinks. Consumers associate the term ‘organic’ with high ethical standards. This is because organic production is less harmful on the environment (mainly by lowering pollution from man-made growing aids). The more natural aspect of organic products also appeals to environmentally-aware consumers as organic farming can claim to be more in tune with nature. Organic livestock production has a strong focus on animal welfare issues, with free range and open-air systems the norm.  As a result the global share of NPD (new product development) taken by organic food and drinks has increased steadily since 2005 to reach 6.8% in 2008. According to the latest market research from Business Insights organic NPD is growing at a faster than average pace in nearly all sectors of the food and drink industry. 

Other highlights from the report:

Bakery and cereals represent the single largest area of organic food and drinks accounting for over 17% of global organic product launches in 2008. Rapid growth in the number of new organic soft drinks and confectionery has increased the share of these sectors to 10% and over 5% respectively.

Europe has overtaken North America as the main region for new organic products, accounting for over 45% of launches in 2008 compared to 41% for North America. Asia-Pacific accounted for under 7% of global organic NPD in 2008, while Latin America and Middle East and Africa have registered very fast growth and collectively account for 5%.

The organic sector’s rate of growth is expected to slow considerably in 2009 and into 2010, and total sales may remain at best flat in markets like the US, the UK and Germany. Demand for meat and produce is expected to weaken, with packaged grocery sales holding up well

This report is available to current London Business School staff, students and faculty from the Business Insights database located on the A-Z list of library databases via Portal

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Low carbon & environmental goods and services: an industry analysis

The UK is currently the 6th largest low carbon and environmental goods and services (LCEGS) economy, but is still trailing behind the US and China. In fact, by region, Europe makes up only 27% of the global market, falling behind both the Americas (30%) and Asia (38%). This latest study from the DBERR presents new market data on the LCEGS sector in the UK, its regions, and internationally. The study draws from over 720 sources, including activities undertaken by companies across the whole environmental supply chain, from R&D, through manufacturing into distribution, retail, installation and maintenance services. Companies are included in the supply chain where 20% of their turnover is supplied into the LCEGS sector, but importantly only the sales activity relating to this sector is included in this study.
 
Key findings from the report:
 
Globally, traditional environmental activities account for £657 billion (21.6% of the global total), Renewable Energy for £940 billion (30.9%) and the emerging low carbon activities for £1449 billion, or 47.5%.
 
Of the 23 products and services included in the global analysis, the largest by market value are Alternative Fuels, 18.5% (part of the Emerging Low Carbon sector), Building Technologies, 12.8% (Emerging Low Carbon sector), Wind Power, 11.5% (Renewable Energy sector) and Alternative Fuels for Vehicles, 11.2% (Emerging Low Carbon sector).
 
It is estimated that overall the global LCEGS sector grew by approximately 4% in 2007/8. Growth performance varied across the 23 subsectors (but was higher for most Renewable Energy subsectors), creating new market opportunities in all global economies.
 
The value of the UK LCEGS sector was £106.5 billion in 2007/8. In terms of size, this puts the low carbon and environmental economy somewhere between the UK’s healthcare and construction sectors.
 
Approximately half of the value of the overall LCEGS sector (48%) lies in the extended value and supply chain activities identified as part of this study. The specialist (i.e. nonsupply chain) market values for the UK are £10.81 billion for the Environmental sector, £17.89 billion for Renewable Energy Technologies and £26.59 billion for the Emerging Low Carbon sector.

Click here to read the full report

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Corporate Governance Review 2008

Grant Thornton has published their seventh annual review of the UK’s FTSE corporate governance disclosures. Each year the review assesses companies for compliance with the policies and provisions of the Combined Code (the Code) and looks at the quality of explanations of underlying practices among the UK’s largest listed companies. In addition, the review covers aspects of the Business Review legislation, introduced within the 2006 Companies Act. This seeks to address the EU transparency agenda of providing greater insight to stakeholders on how management assess and manage business performance. The enhanced disclosure requires companies to move beyond the narrative by disclosing key performance indicators and business metrics. 

The 2008 review uncovers mixed messages as to the state of corporate governance among the FTSE 350.

Positive trends include:

• More informed levels of explanation where companies choose not to comply with the Code

• Continued strengthening of the presence of independent non-executives on the boards of the Mid 250

• High level of disclosure in line with the new Business Review requirements. However, a number of challenges remain:

However, a number of challenges remain. Of the 44% of companies who claim full compliance with the Code, the review found that only a quarter make all the disclosures necessary to support their claim. This leaves a hard core of nearly a fifth who choose not to comply. The quality and usefulness of the explanations given for non-compliance also varies greatly, with significant numbers providing only the bare minimum of information. However, on a more positive note, the review concludes that despite the hard core of ‘reluctants’, the FRC’s recent finding to leave regulation and guidance largely well alone is the right one. The challenge remains one of application.

Click here to read the full report

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The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2009

The past year has been a difficult period for the Travel & Tourism (T&T) sector. High oil prices, diminished tourism due to the international economic crisis, and concerns about terrorism are factors that have raised many challenges for the industry. Yet, despite these difficulties, the T&T sector remains a critical one for the world economy, still accounting for a significant share of global gross domestic product and employment, and providing an important opportunity for developing countries to move up the value chain toward the production of higher value-added services. Reflecting the current economic climate, the latest edition of the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness report, “Managing in a time of turbulence,” reflects the myriad of complexities facing the industry at this time, which must be overcome to ensure strong sectoral growth going into the future.

The report from the World Economic Forum contains detailed profiles for each of the 133 economies featured in the study, as well as an extensive section of data tables with global rankings covering over 70 indicators included in the TTCI (Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index). This specially developed index measures the different regulatory and business-related issues that have been identified as levers for improving travel and tourism competitiveness in countries around the world.

This year’s report finds that Switzerland, Austria and Germany have the most attractive environments for developing the travel and tourism industry. Sweden, Switzerland and Denmark hold the top three spots in the environmental sustainability category. Characterized by environmental legislation that is both stringent and well enforced. These countries also have a specific focus on developing the tourism sector in a sustainable way and good overall environmental outcomes in terms of low levels of pollution and environmental damage.  Austria, Finland, France and the United Kingdom, also do well in this category. The category of Safety and security is also dominated by European countries, with Finland, Iceland and Norway taking the top three places. These countries do not suffer from high levels of crime and violence, and furthermore that are not overly concerned by the threat of terrorism, as is the case in many countries today. In addition, they benefit from police forces that are effective in providing protection from crime and violence, which is critical for the tourism industry.

The full report can be downloaded from the World Economic forum website

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A new source of country data: Business Monitor Online

 

Business Monitor Online is a service new to London Business School students, staff, faculty and alumni.
It provides; country risk, Industry analysis and company intelligence.

 It offers intra-daily news and analysis; country risk assessment; financial markets analysis and macroeconomic data and forecasts. Statistical time series can be downloaded separately.  

The industry research covers: autos, chemicals, commercial banking, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, information technology, infrastructure, insurance, oil & gas, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and tourism.

The London Business School community can find the database in the Library Services section of Portal in the A-Z list of databases.

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Dynamics of the gender gap for young professionals in the corporate & financial sectors

This working paper discusses the various explanations put forward to explain gender gaps in career outcomes for highly-educated workers in the US corporate and financial sectors. The authors of the paper (Marianne Bertrand, Claudia Goldin, Lawrence F. Katz) looked at the careers of MBAs who graduated from a top US business school between 1990 and 2006 in order to understand how career dynamics differ by gender. Although male and female MBAs started with almost identical incomes at the outset of their careers, the study found that women’s earnings significantly declined over time compared to their male counterparts. The authors identified three main reasons for the large and rising gender gap in earnings: Differences in training prior to MBA graduation (women tend to take fewer finance courses); Differences in career interruptions; Differences in weekly hours.

These three determinants can explain the bulk of gender differences in earnings across the years following MBA completion. The presence of children is the main contributor to the lesser job experience, greater career discontinuity and shorter work hours for female MBAs. Disparities in the productive characteristics of male and female MBAs are small, but the pecuniary penalties from shorter hours and any job discontinuity are enormous for MBAs. The researchers stress that active discrimination is unlikely to have played much of a role in the pay gap but the influence of gender roles in determining career paths is still very much a factor.

This NBER paper (No. 14681) is available to current London Business School staff, students and faculty from the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) working papers database available from the A-Z list of library databases via Portal.

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The World's Billionaires 2009

According to Forbes magazine it's been a difficult year for the richest people in the world! Last year there were 1,125 billionaires, this year only 793 people were rich enough to make the annual ranking, that’s a 30% decline from a year ago. Of the 1,125 billionaires who made last year's ranking, 373 fell off the list (355 from declining fortunes and 18 who died). There are 38 newcomers, plus three moguls who returned to the list after regaining their 10-figure fortunes. It is the first time since 2003 that the world has had a net loss in the number of billionaires.

Collectively the net worth of those on the list is $2.4 trillion, down $2 trillion from a year ago. Their average net worth fell 23% to $3 billion. The last time the average was that low was in 2003. Bill Gates regained the number one spot but lost $18 billion on the way. Warren Buffett, last year's No. 1, also saw his fortune decline by $25 billion as shares of Berkshire Hathaway fell nearly 50% in 12 months. The biggest loser this year, by dollars, was last year's biggest gainer.  India's Anil Ambani lost $32 billion, 76% of his fortune, as shares of his Reliance Communications, Reliance Power and Reliance Capital all collapsed.

Worldwide, 80 out of the 355 drop-offs from last year's list had fortunes derived from finance or investments. Those who increased their fortunes did so by catering to budget-conscious consumers such as Uniqlo's Tadashi Yanai.  Newcomers to the list include: Mexican Joaquín Guzmán Loera, one of the biggest suppliers of cocaine to the US.; Wang Chuanfu of China, whose company BYD Co. began selling electric cars in December; and American John Paul Dejoria, for his Paul Mitchell shampoos and Patrón Tequila.

Click here to see the full list

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Deloitte 6th Annual Global Security Survey

Deloitte have published the results of their annual Global Security Survey, which benchmarks IT security and privacy in the financial services industry. The top three information security priorities of financial institutions identified by the survey are: security regulatory compliance, followed by data protection and information leakage, and access and identity management.

The scope of this survey is global, including financial institutions with worldwide presence and head office operations in one of the following geographic regions: North America; Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA); Asia Pacific (APAC); Japan; and Latin America and the Caribbean (LACRO). To promote consistency, and to preserve the value of the answers, the majority of financial institutions were interviewed in their country of headquarters.

Some of the survey’s main findings include:

Security vigilance is even more important during hard economic times, when the increased stress levels can lead people to behave in atypical ways. Even though both internal and external security breaches at financial institutions worldwide have fallen over the past 12 months, employee misconduct is a growing concern.

The growing popularity of social networks and the proliferation of mobile media such as USB keys, MP3 players and PDAs, all cause an extra load on internal and external security. These devices present opportunities for unauthorized download and storage of confidential information in an unprotected medium.

In 2008, financial institutions saw a decline in the number of both external (47% vs. 65% in 2007) and internal (27% vs. 30% in 2007) security breaches.

The leading drivers for financial institutions to protect the privacy of their clients information are privacy regulatory requirements (79%) followed by reputation and brand concerns (70%).

The full report is available from the Deloitte website

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UK Banks: Performance Benchmarking Survey - Full Year 2008

 

Latest Industries Publications

UK Banks: Performance Benchmarking Survey - Full Year 2008
 
This report considers the financial position and performance of the UK’s largest banks. The survey summarises the published interim and annual financial statements and benchmarks the banks against each other.

Published by: Financial Services section of KPMG March 2009 -  A brief registration is need to download the PDF.

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Short-Term Energy Outlook

The EIA (Energy Information Administration) is an independent agency that provides energy statistics for the US Government. Their website provides access to a comprehensive range of energy information and statistics covering: petroleum, natural gas, coal, nuclear, electricity, renewable and alternative fuels. The agency produces annual, monthly and summary reviews for most energy types. The latest short-term energy outlook is now available. Highlights include:

The global economic contraction continues to depress energy demand.

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels: The global oil market has remained relatively stable since the beginning of the year and this is expected to continue until economic recovery in the US and elsewhere leads to a rebound in oil demand growth. Average annual world oil consumption for 2009 is projected to decline by almost 1.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d), with consumption in the OECD falling by 1.6 million bbl/d. World GDP growth (oil consumption weighted) is assumed to decline by 0.8% followed by growth of 2.6% in 2010.   Non-OPEC supply is expected to remain fairly flat over the next 2 years. The llargest sources of growth over the forecast period are the United States, Brazil, and Azerbaijan, offset by large declines in production in Mexico, the North Sea, and Russia.

Natural Gas: Total natural gas consumption is projected to decline by 1.3% in 2009. The outlook for continued economic weakness in 2009 is expected to take its greatest toll on industrial sector natural gas consumption, which is expected to decline by about 6% this year.  The pace and extent of economic recovery in 2010 are the primary factors influencing the natural gas consumption forecast next year, particularly for industrial users.  Based on the current economic assumptions for 2010, slight growth in the industrial sector and 2-percent growth in the electric power sector are balanced by declines in the residential and commercial sectors because of projected milder winter temperatures

Click here to read the full report

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Making the Case for Environmentally and Socially Responsible Consumer Products

This latest report from Forrester written by Sally M. Cohen discusses the increasing demand for product strategists to incorporate environmental and social responsibility into their products to help drive differentiation, incremental revenues, and brand loyalty.

Consumers consider many factors when making purchase decisions, including price, brand, past experiences with a product or company, and word-of-mouth recommendations. Increasingly, consumers are also taking into account the environmental and social responsibility credentials of both the product or service and its producer or provider. The report identifies two main influences on consumers and their purchase decisions:

• How do companies treat people and communities? Nearly two-thirds of consumers say that socially responsible practices do influence their purchase decisions. This includes whether a company donates to charity, engages in Fair Trade practices and how it treats its own employees. The survey found that 18% of consumers are willing to pay more for products and services that demonstrate an ethical approach to business - this represents 40.2 million adults in the US.

• Do companies incorporate green practices into their products? The Forrester survey found that 59% of consumers say that they take into account the environmental practices of manufacturers and products when making purchase decisions. It also found that 15% of consumers or 32.5 million US adults would pay more for products made by companies recognized as environmentally friendly or that incorporate recycled materials in packaging or the product itself.

The full report is available to current London Business School students and faculty from the Forrester database on the A-Z list of library databases via Portal (pre-registration is required – see registration form also on A-Z list)

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Globalcast - free International market study podcasts from Euromonitor

 Listen at you leisure!

Podcast market studies forom Euromonitor the producers of the GMID Database. (Available via Portal.)

Household care in a recession – what will it mean for environmentally friendly products?
The current economic crisis is affecting all industries, with consumers cutting back and trading down.

When will the Global Travel and Tourism Industry Emerge from the Economic Downturn?Discusses how the global travel industry is handling the economic crisis and the impact on the industry now and in the future.

Consumer trends during a recession - Making the most of difficult times.
Consumers are getting thrifty - they substitute, they trade down and they bargain hunt.  As consumers prioritise their spending and make cutbacks, concepts such as no frills chic and functional luxury will take hold. 

January 2009
Packaged Food opportunities in BRIC Markets (Brazil, Russia, India and China)

Tue, 16 December 2008
The Obama Effect – the Impact on the Global Travel and Tourism Industry

Wed, 5 November 2008
The Global Financial Crisis – The Impact on Emerging Economies and Consumers

To download go to: http://euromonitor.libsyn.com/

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Fighting the Market Slowdown in Alcoholic Drinks

The latest market research report from Business Insights looks at the state of the global market for alcoholic drinks. The three key drivers of growth in this market are: the increase of the world’s young adult population; the emergence and growth of the middle class with disposable income; and, to a lesser extent, consumers’ desire to trade-up to more premium products. The report, written by Gavin Humphries argues that the economic downturn of 2008-09 will have both negative and positive effects. On balance it is likely to help volume growth (because consumers are more likely to have a consume alcohol at home but slow value growth (because they will be less likely to premiumize their consumption).

Key findings from the report include:

Spirits lead the market (accounting for 46% of servings), though it is only just ahead of beer (43% of servings). The latter is expanding at the expense of the former and the two will be almost equal by 2012. Wine only accounts for a steady 11% of servings.

China is the largest emerging beer market, and the largest market in the world, having overtaken the US in recent years. This growth is being driven by a growing middle class that has increasingly Western tastes plus a shift away from traditional spirits consumption.

Almost 24bn litres of wine were consumed globally in 2007. Over half (54%) of the wine sold in the world is consumed in Western Europe, plus a further 15% in Eastern Europe. The largest segment in this market is red wine, which accounts for a 50% share of the global wine market, against 34% for white wine. Red wine is increasing its share primarily because of its perceived health benefits

Premiumization is a key trend in spirits, in both developed and emerging markets, and is being pursued by multinational and domestic companies alike. The monopoly of Western companies owning premium brands is coming to an end.

This report is available to current London Business School staff, students and faculty from the Business Insights database on the A-Z list of library databases via Portal.

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The Global Economy 2009: Forecasts Still Falling

According to the latest briefing from Chatham House economies are approaching what will probably be the lowest point of the economic downturn. The UK economy has shown some resilience and this could be an important indicator of the way in which service-based economies with flexible labour practices might withstand the impact of cycles better than more traditional manufacturing economies. However, it is too early to judge but this aspect of the recession should be watched carefully as the year unfolds. Main points from the briefing:

Recent figures from the more developed NE Asian exporters show global manufacturing industries falling at a shocking rate, indicating possible double-digit declines in GDP in 2009.

There have been worse than expected results in South America, with Brazil likely to see a fall of 3-5% in GDP. Mexico’s results could be much worse.

The economic and financial situation in Eastern Europe and Central Asia is deteriorating rapidly and dangerously.

News from the US and Europe has also been poor but policy efforts may just about succeed in stabilizing these economies by mid-2009.

Against this background, analysts are no longer talking about imminent recovery but ‘second order derivatives’ and ‘counterfactuals’ – but does this mean and how positive is it?

Effectively, the optimists hope that the global economy will shrink less rapidly in coming months (the second order derivative turns from positive, foot down on the accelerator, to neutral, foot off).

‘Counterfactual’ means judging a policy’s success or failure not by actual economic performance but performance relative to what it might have been without the policy in place: the US will hear more about this as the fiscal package will not lead to growth picking up but it has prevented a further collapse in the US economy.

Click here to read the briefing in full

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The Top Jobs for 2009

 

Fast Company again but this time looking at Careers.

"In 2009, the job market will be full of contrasts: some industries will be eviscerated while others face shortages of workers. The good news is that despite the recession, there are still real jobs to be had. The bad news is that you may have to change fields to find one. 
 

 Where In The World To Find A Job by Saabira Chaudhuri
The national unemployment rate may be at its worst in over a decade, but there’s a world of opportunity out there beyond Wall Street. Companies from Finland to Dubai are bucking the recession and actively hiring—you just have to know where to look...

Ten Best Green Jobs for the Next Decade by Anya Kamenetz
Massive investments in clean energy promise to keep farmers, urban planners, and green-tech firms in business. This guide to sustainability-focused careers will help solar-charge your work life...
 
 What Should I Do With My Life, Now? by Po Bronson
Author Po Bronson addresses the current economic crisis, in this follow-up to his book and Fast Company article, "What Should I Do With My Life?

7 Essential Steps to Surviving a Post-Layoff Existence by Adam Frucci
We can’t promise riches and happiness, but this tutorial to getting the most out of your free time should land you a notch above destitution... "

Plus: more career advice; salary wizard(US); non-profits and a next generation jobsites. Read it

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The World's Most Innovative Companies 2009

 What do: Lego, Hewlett-Packard, Nike and Amazon have in common?
They are all in the Fast Company's March 20098 Special Issue of "The World's 50 Most Innovative Companies."
Thirty three of the companies on last years list did not make this year's, you can also find out how they have beed doing.
To read more go to the fast Company website, browse the magazine in our Library or read the March issue of Fast Company online via Business Source Complete.

Just type Fast Company and click on the radio button: publications.

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Sovereign Wealth Funds 2009

 Assets under management of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) increased 18% in 2007 to reach $3.3 trillion according to a new IFSL report, Sovereign Wealth Funds.

There was a further $6.1 trillion held in other sovereign investment vehicles, such as pension reserve funds, development funds and state-owned corporations' funds and also $5.3 trillion in other official foreign exchange reserves. Since the start of the sub-prime crisis SWFs, mostly from Asia, have invested over $60bn predominantly in US and Swiss banks. IFSL expects assets of SWFs to reach over $5 trillion in 2010 and $10 trillion in 2015. The UK and London in particular is an important centre in the SWFs market as a clearing house and location from where some of these funds are managed.  Read the report..

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